A New Gompertz Distribution for Modeling Tensile Strength of Carbon Fibers and Single Carbon Fibers Data

Abstract

The Gompertz distribution is a well-known lifetime model in survival and reliability analysis, but its hazard rate is restricted to monotone increasing behavior, which limits its applicability to more complex data structures. In this study, we investigate the New Extended Gompertz (NEG) distribution, which is obtained by applying the existing NE-X generator framework to the classical Gompertz baseline distribution. Thus, the NEG model is a special case within an already established generator family rather than an entirely new family of distributions. The main contribution of this paper is not the introduction of a new generator, but rather a comprehensive and systematic investigation of this particular Gompertz-based extension, including its statistical properties, estimation procedures, and practical applications. The proposed model introduces an additional shape parameter that provides increased flexibility in modeling skewness, tail behavior, and hazard-rate structures, allowing for increasing, decreasing, bathtub-shaped, and unimodal hazard patterns under different parameter configurations. Several mathematical properties of the NEG distribution are derived, including explicit expressions for the density, distribution, survival, and hazard-rate functions, as well as moments, entropy measures, and series representations. Parameter estimation is performed using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches, with numerical optimization and Metropolis-Hastings MCMC procedures employed due to the absence of closed-form estimators. The finite-sample behavior of the estimators is investigated through extensive Monte Carlo simulation studies under three different parameter settings. The practical usefulness of the NEG distribution is illustrated using two real datasets on carbon-fiber tensile strength. Comparative results with several competing Gompertz-type models indicate that the NEG distribution provides competitive performance. However, all comparisons should be interpreted within the context of the considered datasets and parameter settings, rather than as claims of universal superiority. The findings suggest that the NEG distribution offers a flexible and practical extension of the Gompertz model for lifetime data analysis.