EVIDENCE FROM DYNAMIC SYMMETRIC AND ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY TESTS ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TAX REVENUES AND PUBLIC EXPENDITURES IN G7 COUNTRIES

Abstract

In this study, it is aimed to determine the symmetric and asymmetric causal relations between tax revenues and public expenditures in G7 countries. Annual data for the years 1990 through 2021 were used to determine the relationships between the variables. The Hacker and Hatemi-J (2012) bootstrap symmetric causality test, the Hatemi-J (2012) bootstrap asymmetric causality test, and the Hatemi-J (2021) dynamic bootstrap symmetric and asymmetric causality tests were used. The symmetric and asymmetric causality tests revealed few causal linkages between the variables, however the dynamic symmetric and asymmetric causality tests revealed more causal relationships. According to our research, it is essential to use dynamic analysis methods that can generate unique outcomes for sub-periods rather than analysis methods that generate a single result for the entire period in dynamic domains like public expenditure and national tax policies. In reality, it has been noted that throughout the Quantitative Easing period introduced following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis in the USA and during the COVID 19 process, public spending have expanded independently of budget revenues. Similar circumstances occurred in France during the EU debt crisis (2013-2017), in Italy during the Great Recession of 2007-2009, and during COVID 19. When the global economic environment was favorable between 2017 and 2019, Germany, United Kingdom, and Italy organized their public expenditures in accordance with tax revenues, functioning within the framework of the Tax-Spend Hypothesis. As a result, for the effectiveness of fiscal policy, nations may use various fiscal policy techniques during various economic conjuncture times.