Modeling the dynamics of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) via stochastic epidemic model

Abstract

Novel coronavirus disease is a burning issue all over the world. Spreading of the novel coronavirus having the characteristic of rapid transmission whenever the air molecules or the freely existed virus includes in the surrounding and therefore the spread of virus follows a stochastic process instead of deterministic. We assume a stochastic model to investigate the transmission dynamics of the novel coronavirus. To do this, we formulate the model according to the charectersitics of the corona virus disease and then prove the existence as well as the uniqueness of the global positive solution to show the well posed-ness and feasibility of the problem. Following the theory of dynamical systems as well as by constructing a suitable stochastic Lyapunov function, we establish sufficient conditions of the extinction and the existence of stationary distribution. Finally, we carry out the large scale numerical simulations to demonstrate the verification of our analytical results. (C) 2021 THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University.