Sinusoidal Representation Network (SIREN)-Based Direct Multi-Horizon Forecasting of Wind Turbine Output Power

Abstract

Reliable and rapid forecasting of wind turbine output power is vital for operators, particularly day-ahead and intraday market scheduling and reserve allocation. However, the inherent unpredictability, intermittency, and volatility of wind turbine output make forecasting processes difficult. To address this challenge, this study proposes a Sinusoidal Representation Network (SIREN)-based forecasting model for high-accuracy, rapid direct multi-horizon forecasting of wind turbine output power. SIREN is selected due to the periodic and symmetrical mathematical structure of its sinusoidal activation function, which allows the model to represent both low-frequency trends and high-frequency sudden changes in wind energy data. To improve data quality, compensate for asymmetric fluctuations in wind data, and provide more suitable inputs for SIREN training. Several preprocessing steps are utilized before feeding the data into the model. The proposed preprocessing step includes a moving median filter, robust scaling based on median and interquartile range, Winsorizing clipping, and a Hampel filter to reduce the effects of instantaneous noise, outliers, and local peaks without disrupting temporal continuity. Subsequently, a Savitzky-Golay smoothing is applied to attenuate high-frequency measurement noise while preserving curvature, local peaks, and physically meaningful short-term dynamics in the data. The sliding-window approach is used to formulate the multi-horizon forecasting problem directly, and a direct h-step-ahead forecasting architecture is designed, preserving structural symmetry in the time series. The SIREN is trained and tested using MATLAB with the help of two different datasets: Dataset-1 has a 10 min resolution for 1 year, and Dataset-2 has a 1 h resolution for 15 years. The forecast horizon parameter h is considered separately for each step, and the proposed SIREN is independently trained, validated, and tested for each target horizon while maintaining chronological order. The results demonstrate that the proposed model is able to yield high forecast performance for a wide spectrum of horizons ranging from 10 min to 15 days. The accuracy of the proposed model for Dataset-1 is R-2 of 99.6%, MSE of 0.085%, MAE of 1.7%, and MAPE of 12%, while for Dataset-2, the accuracy is R-2 of 98.8%, MSE of 0.3%, MAE of 3.6%, and MAPE of 23%. Ablation and sensitivity analyses are conducted to evaluate the impact of the basic components used in the proposed model on forecasting performance. In addition, combative experiments are performed using traditional time series, ML, and DL forecasting techniques to better assess the contribution of the model. The obtained results show that the SIREN-based direct forecasting approach provides strong learning capability, as well as high forecasting accuracy, for both high-resolution and low-resolution wind power data. Overall, its ability to capture the symmetric and periodic characteristics inherent in wind turbine power data makes it a promising alternative for multi-horizon wind power forecasting applications.