Trout Farming Productivity After the 2023 Earthquake in Eastern Türkiye: A DEA-Malmquist Analysis (2023-2025)

Abstract

Extreme natural disasters raise a fundamental question for biologically rigid food production systems: does post-disaster productivity recovery stem from technological change or from adaptive reorganization within existing constraints? In inland aquaculture, where biological processes, fixed production cycles, and capital requirements severely limit short-run technological upgrading, this distinction is particularly critical. Using two post-earthquake time points (2023 and 2025), the analysis documents productivity and efficiency patterns rather than causal recovery trajectories. Accordingly, the analysis is explicitly descriptive and does not attempt to identify causal recovery mechanisms or long-run productivity dynamics. Adaptive efficiency is not directly measured in this study; rather, the term is used as an interpretative construct to describe efficiency changes that are consistent with adaptive behavior under post-disaster constraints. This study examines productivity patterns observed during the post-earthquake period in inland trout aquaculture following the 6 February 2023 earthquake in Eastern T & uuml;rkiye, with a particular focus on adaptive efficiency as a recovery-consistent mechanism. Using a balanced panel of 290 inland trout farms observed during the immediate post-earthquake adjustment period (2023) and a subsequent recovery phase (2025), the analysis integrates bias-corrected Data Envelopment Analysis, Malmquist productivity decomposition, and resilience-oriented truncated regression. Recovery dynamics are examined conditional on farm survival, allowing within-farm adaptive adjustment to be distinguished from exit-driven selection effects. The results indicate that productivity recovery was driven predominantly by improvements in technical efficiency, while technological change remained close to unity across provinces, suggesting short-run production frontier stability. This pattern is consistent with delayed or constrained investment behavior under heightened uncertainty rather than with technological stagnation. This interpretation is not unique and should be read as one plausible mechanism among several, rather than as a definitive explanation of observed frontier stability. Farms primarily restored performance through operational reorganization, input coordination, and scale adjustment within existing biological and technological constraints, rather than through innovation. Second-stage results further show that the coefficient on access to liquidity is positive, while higher mortality rates and greater distance to markets are systematically associated with weaker post-disaster adjustment. Overall, the findings indicate that short- to medium-term productivity patterns in biologically rigid inland aquaculture systems are governed primarily by efficiency changes consistent with adaptive efficiency rather than technological change. From a policy perspective, post-disaster aquaculture recovery strategies should prioritize liquidity support, biological continuity, and operational stability over premature technology-push interventions. The analysis is based on two post-disaster observation points (2023 and 2025), which allows identification of short- to medium-term recovery-consistent patterns but does not permit causal or long-run inference.