An integrated analysis of dam break and flood propagation for the Ergani RCC dam case study

Abstract

Climate change and seismic activities increase the failure hazard of concrete gravity dams, yet literature lacks sufficient data on their breach mechanisms compared to embankment dams. This study addresses this gap by presenting a novel integrated framework that couples structural failure analysis with hydrodynamic flood propagation for the Ergani RCC Dam. The methodology follows a three-stage approach: pseudo-static analysis to define failure modes, CFD-based hydraulic modeling to simulate peak discharges, and flood inundation mapping. The findings reveal that under the worst-case scenario, 746 ha of agricultural land would be flooded, with 55.6% classified as very high hazard level. Notably, some highways located in the flood region were found to be under high hazard level in all scenarios. These results emphasize the urgent need for emergency action plans, currently absent in the regional context, to prevent significant loss of life and property in the downstream basin.