Prediction of the Vertical Displacement on the Crest of Keban Dam

Abstract

Dams are important engineering structures, therefore dams should be constructed with the rigors of safety in mind. In this paper; the vertical displacement of the crest of Keban Dam in Turkey, is determined using a grey prediction method. The grey prediction method is a method that produces satisfactory results when we do not have enough experience about a system behaviors. The purpose of this study is to examine the effectiveness of the grey prediction method in systems where a limited amount of data is available or known. In this study the Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) method; a very well-known prediction method is used for comparison. The results from our investigation indicate that the grey prediction method produces better results, more in-keeping with true values.